This is our Handicap Analysis, following on from last week's edition, where we read the new official marks against our own ratings rather than just listing numbers. Target races are checked against this year's published programme, and race links point to last year's runnings.
Cheltenham's opening meeting is the week the jumps handicapper starts earning his money, and he has been busy. One horse is up 21lb, another 11lb, and the most interesting answers are a 5lb let-off for a horse we said we did not understand, and 3 horses he has not touched at all.
Cheltenham, 24 October · Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, Class 2, 3m
Seaniecon: raised 6lb, 127 to 133
Seaniecon won the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle off 127 for Jonjo and A J O'Neill, a Class 2 over 3m worth over £19,000 to the winner with 19 of them lining up, and the handicapper has taken 6lb.
Six pounds for winning a Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham is the going rate, and the number that matters is not 133 but what it buys him: a qualifier win is a ticket to the Final at the Festival in March, and that is the race this whole campaign is pointed at. A 5-year-old winning this on his first start of the season has the profile of a horse who improves again.
The number that decides his season is not 133, it is the cut for the Final. The lowest rated horse to get a run in last season's Pertemps Final was 127. Winning this has not only qualified him, it has made sure he gets in. Everything from here is about not spoiling that.
Where next: he looked like he needed every yard of the 3m on Saturday, and that gives them 2 ways to keep the mark where it is. Send him into graded company and he can run respectably without handing the handicapper anything to work with. Or drop him back to 2m4f, a trip he has form at (2nd in a novices' hurdle at Uttoxeter in March, rated 125), where he is less likely to be seen at his very best and 133 holds. Cheltenham's Class 2 over 2m7f at the November meeting (last year's running) is the straightforward option if they simply want a run at the track. What they will not want is to win another handicap before March.
Thank You Ma'am: unchanged on 124
Thank You Ma'Am was 4th in the same race off 124 for Georgina Nicholls and has not been touched. That is the one to take out of the Pertemps. He was beaten by a horse who has gone up 6lb and by 2 others, and the handicapper has decided the run told him nothing new.
Fourth in a 19 runner Class 2 at Cheltenham off an unchanged mark is a better position than it looks, but there is a catch with the Final. The lowest rated runner in last season's Final was 127, and he is 124. On those numbers he does not get in. So if the Final is the plan, he has to win one first, and that is the whole job this autumn.
There is something else we keep seeing with him. He looks to us like he is getting to the front too soon. He did it at Chepstow a fortnight ago, where he was 2nd rated 125, and he did it again here. Lorcan Murtagh has now ridden him on both of those occasions. Held together a fraction longer, this is a horse who wins next time, and a win is exactly what he needs.
Ace Of Spades: dropped 1lb, 138 to 137
Ace Of Spades was 10th off 138 for Dan Skelton and comes down a pound. A pound after finishing 10th of 19 is the handicapper saying he wants to see more before he moves, and at 137 this horse still needs to come down a long way before the number looks beatable.
Where next: we already named the race in Saturday's review, the stayers' handicap hurdle at Haydock in late November, where he was 4th off 130 last season. And yes, we would expect him back quickly rather than put away, because last season ran to exactly this shape: a run in late October, then Haydock a month later. The caveat is the mark and not the horse. He has yet to win off anything as high as 137, and a single pound does not change that.
Bold Endeavour: dropped 3lb, 119 to 116
Bold Endeavour was 13th off 119 and gets 3lb back. He is a 10-year-old for Chris Honour and this is how a veteran's season usually starts: one run that empties the tank, then the handicapper starts giving the weight back a few pounds at a time.
The fairer question is whether he is right. He was rated 144 in January 2024 and finished 4th in the Pertemps Final off 143 that March. Since then he has been pulled up twice, missed a full year between January 2025 and January 2026, changed yards more than once and is now with his current trainer. The mark has come down 25lb and he still cannot land a blow. We are not going to guess at a diagnosis, but a horse can be well handicapped on paper and still be unable to show it. Until he runs to something near his old level, treat the falling number as a symptom rather than an opportunity.